Example run · Rendered Markdown
Central Bank Path
What policy path do rate futures imply per meeting, and does the macro picture support it?
Exact commandRepository root
PYTHONPATH=labs/central-bank-path/src python3 -m cbpathlab analyze labs/central-bank-path/data/sample_path.csv --current-rate 5.35 --neutral-rate 3.25Real outputExit code 0
Central Bank Path Lab Report
Regime: hard-landing hedge Terminal expected rate: 4.48% Total path change: -87 bps Terminal gap to neutral: 123 bps
Meeting-implied path
| Meeting | Contract | Expected rate | Step change | Cut odds | Hold odds | Hike odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | ZQH6 | 5.10% | -25 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-05-06 | ZQK6 | 4.86% | -24 bps | 96% | 4% | 0% |
| 2026-06-17 | ZQM6 | 4.59% | -27 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-07-29 | ZQN6 | 4.48% | -11 bps | 44% | 56% | 0% |
Interpretation flags
- market prices aggressive easing while unemployment is already elevated
- terminal expected rate remains materially above neutral
- easing path conflicts with still-sticky core inflation
- weak new orders make the path look like a growth-shock hedge
Methodology
Fed Funds futures-style prices are converted as 100 - price. Adjacent expected rates are compared meeting by meeting, and the expected bps move is divided by a 25 bp policy step to infer transparent one-step cut/hold/hike odds. The regime label combines the priced path with simple macro context; it is a diagnostic, not investment advice.