Rates & macro Lab 10
Central Bank Path
What policy path do rate futures imply per meeting, and does the macro picture support it?
Generated using bundled data. These values illustrate the diagnostic and are not current market observations.
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Central Bank Path Lab Report
Regime: hard-landing hedge Terminal expected rate: 4.48% Total path change: -87 bps Terminal gap to neutral: 123 bps
Meeting-implied path
| Meeting | Contract | Expected rate | Step change | Cut odds | Hold odds | Hike odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | ZQH6 | 5.10% | -25 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-05-06 | ZQK6 | 4.86% | -24 bps | 96% | 4% | 0% |
| 2026-06-17 | ZQM6 | 4.59% | -27 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-07-29 | ZQN6 | 4.48% | -11 bps | 44% | 56% | 0% |
Interpretation flags
- market prices aggressive easing while unemployment is already elevated
- terminal expected rate remains materially above neutral
- easing path conflicts with still-sticky core inflation
- weak new orders make the path look like a growth-shock hedge
Methodology
Fed Funds futures-style prices are converted as 100 - price. Adjacent expected rates are compared meeting by meeting, and the expected bps move is divided by a 25 bp policy step to infer transparent one-step cut/hold/hike odds. The regime label combines the priced path with simple macro context; it is a diagnostic, not investment advice.
The paper trail
Inspect. Reproduce. Extend.
Run this command from the finance-labs repository root to reproduce the bundled example.
PYTHONPATH=labs/central-bank-path/src python3 -m cbpathlab analyze labs/central-bank-path/data/sample_path.csv --current-rate 5.35 --neutral-rate 3.25
View original captured output
# Central Bank Path Lab Report
**Regime:** hard-landing hedge
**Terminal expected rate:** 4.48%
**Total path change:** -87 bps
**Terminal gap to neutral:** 123 bps
## Meeting-implied path
| Meeting | Contract | Expected rate | Step change | Cut odds | Hold odds | Hike odds |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2026-03-18 | ZQH6 | 5.10% | -25 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-05-06 | ZQK6 | 4.86% | -24 bps | 96% | 4% | 0% |
| 2026-06-17 | ZQM6 | 4.59% | -27 bps | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2026-07-29 | ZQN6 | 4.48% | -11 bps | 44% | 56% | 0% |
## Interpretation flags
- market prices aggressive easing while unemployment is already elevated
- terminal expected rate remains materially above neutral
- easing path conflicts with still-sticky core inflation
- weak new orders make the path look like a growth-shock hedge
## Methodology
Fed Funds futures-style prices are converted as `100 - price`. Adjacent expected rates are compared meeting by meeting, and the expected bps move is divided by a 25 bp policy step to infer transparent one-step cut/hold/hike odds. The regime label combines the priced path with simple macro context; it is a diagnostic, not investment advice.
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