Credit & earnings Lab 08
Guidance Drift
Where does optimistic earnings commentary diverge from weakening growth, margins, or guidance revisions?
Generated using bundled data. These values illustrate the diagnostic and are not current market observations.
↔ Wide tables scroll horizontally. Keyboard: focus a table, then use the arrow keys.
Guidance Drift Report: Northstar Semis
Northstar Semis shows high positive-language drift in 2026-Q2 (drift=0.688), making it the quarter most worth analyst review.
| Quarter | Drift | Label | Tone | Fundamentals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q2 | 0.688 | high positive-language drift | 0.571 | -0.804 |
| 2026-Q1 | 0.022 | low drift | 0.400 | 0.357 |
| 2026-Q3 | 0.003 | low drift | 0.000 | -0.007 |
Methodology
Guidance Drift Lab compares earnings-call tone with three simple fundamentals: revenue growth, margin change in basis points, and guidance revision. Positive language paired with deteriorating fundamentals receives a higher drift score.
Analyst note
Optimistic tone conflicts with weak fundamentals; review guidance quality and risk disclosures.
Not investment advice. Use as a research triage tool, not as a trading signal.
The paper trail
Inspect. Reproduce. Extend.
Run this command from the finance-labs repository root to reproduce the bundled example.
PYTHONPATH=labs/guidance-drift/src python3 -m guidance_drift_lab analyze labs/guidance-drift/examples/sample_guidance.csv --format markdown
View original captured output
# Guidance Drift Report: Northstar Semis
Northstar Semis shows high positive-language drift in 2026-Q2 (drift=0.688), making it the quarter most worth analyst review.
| Quarter | Drift | Label | Tone | Fundamentals |
| --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: |
| 2026-Q2 | 0.688 | high positive-language drift | 0.571 | -0.804 |
| 2026-Q1 | 0.022 | low drift | 0.400 | 0.357 |
| 2026-Q3 | 0.003 | low drift | 0.000 | -0.007 |
## Methodology
Guidance Drift Lab compares earnings-call tone with three simple fundamentals: revenue growth, margin change in basis points, and guidance revision. Positive language paired with deteriorating fundamentals receives a higher drift score.
## Analyst note
Optimistic tone conflicts with weak fundamentals; review guidance quality and risk disclosures.
_Not investment advice. Use as a research triage tool, not as a trading signal._
Capture execution time unavailable
Source revision was not recorded for this historical capture.
The source link points to the current repository; it may differ from this saved run.